Question

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction

63%

(59% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 63%

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Nov 24, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 26, 2021

Health & Pandemics

Food and Drug Administration

Experimental drug helps patients lose nearly a quarter of body weight in early trials

FOX News•Jun 24, 2025

Monthly weight loss drug helps people lose 20% of body weight, trial finds

NBC•Jun 24, 2025

Ozempic Alternative May Offer Weight Loss Without Injections or Muscle Loss

Newsweek•Jun 23, 2025

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Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

80%

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

43%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Nov 24, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 26, 2021

Health & Pandemics

Food and Drug Administration

Experimental drug helps patients lose nearly a quarter of body weight in early trials

FOX News•Jun 24, 2025

Monthly weight loss drug helps people lose 20% of body weight, trial finds

NBC•Jun 24, 2025

Ozempic Alternative May Offer Weight Loss Without Injections or Muscle Loss

Newsweek•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

80%

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

43%