34 comments
121 forecasters
Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?
1%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2034
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 19, 2021
Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
2% chance
43
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
2% chance
61
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9% chance
20