121 forecasters

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

1%chance

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 19, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?