3 comments
23 forecasters
If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?
85%chance
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Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2044
Scheduled resolution:Jun 30, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?
84% chance
24
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?
25% chance
45
Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?
72% chance
27