Question

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction

85%

(84% - 93%)

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50%

community: 85%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2044

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Economy & Business

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%