Question

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction85%

Make a Prediction

community: 85%

median 85.0%mean 77.8%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Economy & Business

United States

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Economy & Business

United States

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Program? Here’s What To Know As Ex-PM Calls For Strikes

Forbes•Oct 9, 2024

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

America Is Updating Its Nuclear Weapons. The Price: $1.7 Trillion. - The New York Times

New York Times•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%