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Russia-NATO war without US

Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Horizons Project


Related Questions on Metaculus:

Other questions ask Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? and Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?.

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

This question will resolve as Yes if the following two criteria are met:

  1. Between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2035, there is a conflict between Russia and one or more NATO countries other than the US in which those countries collectively suffer at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year, as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources.

  2. It is not the case that there is a US-Russia war by January 1, 2035 (regardless of whether that's connected to, before, or after the war mentioned in the first criterion). In other words, the question "Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?" must resolve negatively for this question to resolve positively.

This question can resolve positively even if the US is in some way involved in the war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, as long as the US's involvement is insufficient to resolve "Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?" positively. For example, this question can resolve positively if there's a year before 2035 in which Russia and Germany each suffer 600 battle-related deaths as part of a conflict with each other and, as part of the same conflict, the US suffers "only" 100 battle-related deaths and inflicts "only" the same amount.

We here define battle related deaths as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies.

If NATO ceases to exist by 2035, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were part of NATO as of 2021.

Resolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.

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