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34
forecasters
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34 forecasters
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
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At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?
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70%
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9 comments
314 forecasters
Countries With 1+ Fatality From Nuclear Det.
Ukraine
15.1%
Israel
13%
Pakistan
11%
India
10%
4 others
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Fatal Non-state Nuclear Detonation by 2030
1%
chance
7 comments
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US Fatality from Nuclear Weapon Detonation
28%
chance
7 comments
27 forecasters
Date of First Nuclear Detonation
Current estimate
Feb 2046
12 comments
67 forecasters
Fatality from Nuclear Detonation in N. Korea
24%
chance
0 comments
24 forecasters
First Detonation by 2050 Inadvertent
21.8%
chance
5 comments
47 forecasters
Number of Nuclear Detonations by 2050
over 100
39%
over 1,000
9%
0 comments
34 forecasters
US Reaction to NATO Offensive Detonation
75%
chance