0 comments
20 forecasters
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch