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Question

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction20.9%

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50%
community: 20.9%
median 20.9%mean 20.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Opened:
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Scheduled resolution:

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