1 comment
19 forecasters
If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?
10%chance
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21% chance
21
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?
75% chance
176
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters