Authors:
Opened:Nov 22, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 24, 2021
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
27 forecasters
Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?
19 forecasters
If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?
66% chance
38