Question

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction

62%

(55% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 62%

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Nov 22, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 24, 2021

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

NATO's Rutte Issues Stark Warning About US Navy and China

Newsweek•Sep 4, 2025

Sweden Warns Europe of Main Threat After China Parade

Newsweek•Sep 4, 2025

Russia makes terrifying nuclear offer to China that could topple the U.S. and leave world on the brink of Armageddon

Daily Mail•Sep 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

66%

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Nov 22, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 24, 2021

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

NATO's Rutte Issues Stark Warning About US Navy and China

Newsweek•Sep 4, 2025

Sweden Warns Europe of Main Threat After China Parade

Newsweek•Sep 4, 2025

Russia makes terrifying nuclear offer to China that could topple the U.S. and leave world on the brink of Armageddon

Daily Mail•Sep 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

66%