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7
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90
forecasters
Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?
70%
chance
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Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (3)
SIPRI estimates China's arsenal grows by 100 warheads/year
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
600 warheads estimated by SIPRI and US DoD
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
1000 warheads expected by 2029
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
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Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Nov 22, 2021
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Nov 24, 2021
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
News Match
Last nuclear treaty between US and Russia nears expiration as Trump and Putin trade testing threats
CNN
•
Nov 16, 2025
China's 'secret' military base hidden in plain sight... where Beijing is developing the most advanced space, nuclear and military tech in the world
Daily Mail
•
Nov 15, 2025
China Building First Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carrier To Challenge US
Newsweek
•
Nov 13, 2025
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