90 forecasters

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

70%chance

5 pp this week

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Nov 22, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 24, 2021

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