Question

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

11

Total Forecasters75

Community Prediction

75%

(60% - 88%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Nov 22, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 24, 2021

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Arms Control Association

Federation of American Scientists

US Department of Defense

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Nov 22, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 24, 2021

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Arms Control Association

Federation of American Scientists

US Department of Defense