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7
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90
forecasters
Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?
70%
chance
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Top Key Factors
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SIPRI estimates China's arsenal grows by 100 warheads/year
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
600 warheads estimated by SIPRI and US DoD
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
1000 warheads expected by 2029
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
1 vote
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Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Nov 22, 2021
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Nov 24, 2021
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Nov 19, 2025
China military reaches 'war footing' with new missile silos and advanced AI warfare systems
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•
Nov 18, 2025
Last nuclear treaty between US and Russia nears expiration as Trump and Putin trade testing threats
CNN
•
Nov 16, 2025
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