12 comments
101 forecasters
Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?
95%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Nov 22, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 22, 2021
Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?
25% chance
38
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9% chance
20
If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?
76% chance
24