15 comments
111 forecasters
Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?
20%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Dec 6, 2021
Closes:Apr 11, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 6, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
What percentage of Russia's electricity generation will come from nuclear power in 2030?
24.5%
(21.8 - 26.6)
24.5%
(21.8 - 26.6)
11 forecasters
What percentage of Russia's electricity generation will come from nuclear power in 2050?
29.2%
(19.5 - 39.8)
29.2%
(19.5 - 39.8)
14 forecasters
Before 2030, will it be announced that the fueling of the UAMPS small modular nuclear reactor project at the Idaho National Laboratory has begun?
5% chance
21