FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    VA COVID cases peak before 1 May 2022

    Created by juancambeiro on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by juancambeiro on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.
    Healthy Communities Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

    Question

    A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases in Virginia over the next few months (which includes winter) — particularly given that Virginia experienced an all-time peak in COVID-19 cases last winter, with the 7-day moving average of cases reaching 5,903 on 8 January 2021.

    What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?

    This question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH “Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard.

    1 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 April 2022 is the last day covered.

    Also see this related question on when this peak will be.

    Categories:
    Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.