A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases in Virginia over the next few months (which includes winter) — particularly given that Virginia experienced an all-time peak in COVID-19 cases last winter, with the 7-day moving average of cases reaching 5,903 on 8 January 2021.
What will be Virginia’s peak 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?
This question resolves on the basis of the peak in the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on the VDH “Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset” graph on the COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths dashboard.
1 December 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 30 April 2022 is the last day covered.
Also see this related question on when this peak will be.