A key uncertainty is when sufficient population immunity against SARS-CoV-2 will be attained in Virginia so that the number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations falls to a new low.
In Virginia, the weekly total of new hospitalizations has not been below 49 since the weekl ending 14 March 2020.
When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?
This will resolve as the date when the weekly total of new confirmed+probable hospitalizations reaches a level below 49.0 according to the VDH “Number of Hospitalizations by Date of Hospital Admission” dashboard.
This question can close early if the 49 threshold is apparently reached according to the VDH dashboard, but will not resolve until at least two weeks after the fact since it takes ~2 weeks for the hospitalizations data to no longer be volatile.
If this does not occur before 4 May 2022, this will resolve as > 4 May 2022.