Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

COVID Summer Peak exceeds Winter Peak by 2027

Healthy Communities Keep Virginia Safe Tournament


Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.

VDH tracks the number of new COVID-19 cases by date of symptom onset, which it currently updates on weekdays.

VDH also tracks CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:

“monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”

This question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during a summer (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

This will resolve positively if at any point during the summer months of June, July, or August the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases(“Cases by Date of Symptom Onset”) or COVID-like illness (“Weekly CLI visits (counts)” exceeds the peak of the winter (December, January, February) immediately preceding that summer.

This applies for all the winter and summer months through 1 November 2026.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.