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COVID Summer Peak exceeds Winter Peak by 2027

Healthy Communities Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

Question

Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.

VDH tracks the number of new COVID-19 cases by date of symptom onset, which it currently updates on weekdays.

VDH also tracks CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:

“monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”

This question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during a summer (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

This will resolve positively if at any point during the summer months of June, July, or August the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases(“Cases by Date of Symptom Onset”) or COVID-like illness (“Weekly CLI visits (counts)” exceeds the peak of the winter (December, January, February) immediately preceding that summer.

This applies for all the winter and summer months through 1 November 2026.

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