Question

Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?

Resolved:Yes

45 comments45

Total Forecasters229

Community Prediction

85%

(80% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

41.3

Community Peer Score

4.4

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Nov 27, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 27, 2021

Health & Pandemics

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80%

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

37%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Nov 27, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 27, 2021

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Newest Covid variant causing ‘razor blade throat.’ What to know

Independent•Jun 20, 2025

What’s behind the global surge of new Covid variant NB.1.8.1 – and should you get vaccinated?

Independent•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

37%