Question
What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?
Resolved:0.948Total Forecasters75
Community Prediction
0.95
(0.929 - 0.971)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 0.9287 | — |
| median | 0.9505 | — |
| upper 75% | 0.9715 | — |
What was the final result?0.948
Community Peer Score
46.5
Authors:
Opened:Dec 13, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 15, 2021
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
97
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?
98.2
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
47.5
Authors:
Opened:Dec 13, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 15, 2021
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
97
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?
98.2
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
47.5