Question

Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?

Resolved:Yes

42 comments42

Total Forecasters348

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-5.0

Community Peer Score

36.7

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Dec 11, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 7, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 11, 2021

Global Trends 2022

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

How many named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years?

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Dec 11, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 7, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 11, 2021

Global Trends 2022

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%