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Will Tesla go bankrupt by 2020?

It was previously asked whether Tesla would go bankrupt by 2019. The Metaculus prediction on that question ended up being 10% and that (in the writer's opinion) still feels about right as of the writing of this question. Tesla may run out of money within 2018, yet even a rather unsuccessful capital raise is likely to save them into 2019.

Yet, whether Tesla will survive through 2019 is another question. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is burning through about $6,500 dollars a minute and is still lagging behind on Model 3 production.

It is asked:Will Tesla file for bankruptcy prior to January 1st 2020?

Should Tesla file for bankruptcy while this question is still open, the question shall be closed retroactively at the point 5 hours before the announcement. Of course, if Tesla files for bankruptcy prior to January 1st 2019, the question shall still resolve positive.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.