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1.9k comments
1.2k forecasters

Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?

99%chance
99%chance
ResolvedYes
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
casens
Opened:Dec 11, 2021
Closes:Jul 29, 2022
Resolved:Feb 24, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 11, 2021
Global Trends 2022
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
Geopolitics
🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard
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Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

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Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

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Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

2027
3%
2030
13%
2035
17%
63 forecasters
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