China repealed its one-child policy in 2015. It now allows people to have up to three children. Some commenters have predicted that China will "demographically collapse". In an attempt to increase fertility and to avert the problems associated with an aging population, China is encouraging members of the CPC to have three children. China had a total fertility rate (TFR) of only 1.3 in 2020, well below the replacement level. Here we ask if these attempts will succeed. Richard Hanania called Chinese TFR the "world's most important metric in the next 20 years".
What will China's total fertility rate be in 2031?
Resolves as whatever the World Bank reports as China's "total birth per woman" for the year 2031.