Related Question on Metaculus:
- What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?
As the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant is spreading globally, Our World In Data shows a massive disparity in vaccine distribution among countries. High-income and upper-middle income countries have at least 75% of their populations with at least 1 dose of a vaccine as of December 24, 2021. For low-income countries, the same figure is 8.3%. Classification of countries by income level is determined by the World Bank and can be found here.
"By virtually every measure, global vaccine distribution and equity have been an abysmal failure and a deep moral crisis,” said Lawrence Gostin of Georgetown Law. The World Health Organization's COVAX initiative, a program aimed and global vaccine distribution, set an initial target to reach a 20% rate in every country by end of 2021, and later raised their target to 40%.
"We’re now at a point of having more than a billion doses a month of vaccines being produced, but it’s a slow trickle still to get to low-income countries and lower middle-income countries," said Dr Krishna Udayakumar, of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center in December 2021. Airfinity, a UK analytics company, estimated in November 2021 that 500 million vaccine doses had been stockpiled (largely in rich countries) overshooting the demand in their respective countries, and projected this excess stockpile would grow to 970 million doses by June 2022.
Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?
This question will resolve positively if on December 31, 2022, any nation reports that less than 10% of their population has recieved at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine, according to Our World In Data. Nations which do not have any data (such as North Korea) may be excluded unless an alternative credible source is available.
Resolution may be delayed for 2 months to account for delays in reporting data.