🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?

Resolved :Above upper bound2024-01-01
5
5
Total Forecasters37
Community Prediction2024-01-01 (2024-01-01 - 2024-01-01)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2024-01-01
...
...
...
...
>2024-01-01 00:00
>2024-01-01 00:00
>2024-01-01 00:00
93.0%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score
56.6
Community Peer Score
8.0
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Future Perfect 2022 Series
Geopolitics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Tigray People's Liberation Front
Addis Ababa–Djibouti Railway
Debretsion Gebremichael
Mekelle
Amhara Region
Afar Region
Oromo Liberation Front
Addis Ababa
Abiy Ahmed

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