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141 forecasters

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141 forecasters

AI Technical Benchmarks

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?

ResolvedNo

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24 comments98 forecasters

Greatest Computation Used in AI Training

3 comments8 forecasters

FLOP usage for training transformative AI

Current estimate

5.5×10³⁰ FLOP

1 comment8 forecasters

What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?

Current estimate

105M H100 Equivalents

4 comments2 forecasters

Exfiltration of Compute-Intensive AI Models

Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e3299.4%

Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e3287.7%

Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e2877.5%

Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e3072.8%

Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26result: No

10 comments53 forecasters

Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030

Current estimate

0 comments25 forecasters

Dates Large AI Models Released

13 comments26 forecasters

Most Expensive AI Training Run by Year

0 comments9 forecasters

Chinese Org Trains on > 1500-TFLOP GPUs

Current estimate