Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Low-Income Countries Vaccinated by EOY 2022


Related Question on Metaculus:

As the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant is spreading globally, Our World In Data shows a massive disparity in vaccine distribution among countries. High-income and upper-middle income countries have at least 75% of their populations with at least 1 dose of a vaccine as of December 24, 2021. For low-income countries, the same figure is 8.3%. Classification of countries by income level is determined by the World Bank and can be found here.

"By virtually every measure, global vaccine distribution and equity have been an abysmal failure and a deep moral crisis,” said Lawrence Gostin of Georgetown Law. The World Health Organization's COVAX initiative, a program aimed at global vaccine distribution, set an initial target to reach a 20% rate in every country by end of 2021, and later raised their target to 40%.

"We’re now at a point of having more than a billion doses a month of vaccines being produced, but it’s a slow trickle still to get to low-income countries and lower middle-income countries," said Dr Krishna Udayakumar, of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center in December 2021. Airfinity, a UK analytics company, estimated in November 2021 that 500 million vaccine doses had been stockpiled (largely in rich countries) overshooting the demand in their respective countries, and projected this excess stockpile would grow to 970 million doses by June 2022.

What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?

This question will resolve according to the share of the population of low-income countries which have recieved at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, according to Our World In Data on January 1, 2023. The classification of which countries are "low-income" can be found here. If countries change their classification by January 1, 2023, the version on December 24, 2021 will be used. Nations which do not have any data (such as North Korea) may be excluded unless an alternative credible source is available.

Resolution may be delayed for 2 months to account for delays in reporting data.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.