Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Number of Democrats in Senate after 2022


Related Questions on Metaculus:

Every 2 years, the United States elects all 435 members of the House of Representatives, as well as one-third of the 100 members of the US senate. Democrats hold (as of December 30, 2021) a majority of seats in the House, the Senate, and the Presidency, although they hold exactly 50 seats in the Senate, only winning a "majority" with tie-breaking votes by Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. Recent decades have been highly competitive. In the last 10 midterm elections (where the President was not up for election), the party opposing the President gained a median of 3.5 seats, and gained at least one seat in 6 out of 10 years.

Democratic President Joe Biden holds (on December 30, 2021) a -8.0 percentage point net approval rating. Generic Congressional Ballot polling finds (on December 30, 2021) Republicans are favored over Democrats by 0.8 percentage points.

The election is currently scheduled for November 8, 2022.

How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?

This question will resolve as the number of Democrats who won an election to the US Senate in 2022, in addition to the sitting Democratic Senators who are not scheduled for election. This number will be determined by whomever won their elections, according to the US Federal Elections Comission, following any runoff elections or recounts, plus the sitting Democrats not up for election on Election Day. It will not necessarily reflect the Senate Membership or party control at any particular time (if members retire or are appointed during the counting and resolution of votes).

Independent or third-party candidates who are known to caucus with the Democratic party will be included in the count of Democratic Senators.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.