exploring accurate contingencies crowdsourcing accurate wisdom forecasting quantitative futures exploring contingent insights modeling contingent predictions mapping the future assembling predictive forecasts computing calibrated estimations composing predictive estimations forecasting definitive estimations computing predictive understanding generating critical forecasts delivering intelligent contingencies aggregating intelligent understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?

Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high.

There is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to take land without compensation. This is an attempt to redistribute land due to unequal land ownership as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. Some think this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.

This, in addition to the high rate of farm attacks in South Africa has led to conservative white groups gearing up for a fight, some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier.

Will there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet?

The answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.