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Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018?


This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.

"Acknowledged” means the government of the country executing the attack claims responsibility for it. A “national military attack” includes the employment of conventional or unconventional weapons by one country’s national military forces on another country’s military, military assets, or territory, including citizens located within that territory, but excluding territorial waters, foreign missions, and/or exclusive economic zones. A “cyber” attack will not qualify as a “national military attack.” Attacks by specific military or paramilitary units or non-state actors will not qualify as “national military attacks” unless the government claims responsibility for them. Taiwan is considered a part of China and not an independent country.

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