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Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office?

Donald Trump won the 2016 election, to the surprise of many (including many here on Metaculus), having never been elected to a political office before. This is rare amongst US presidents, with the last such president being Eisenhower, who had been a military leader instead.

But perhaps the age of the politician president is over and the age of the celebrity president has begun?

This question asks whether the winner of the 2020 election will have been elected to any previous significant political office.

Positive resolution occurs if the winner of the 2020 election has been previously elected to the House of Representatives, the Senate, the Governorship of any state or the Vice Presidency (but not the Presidency itself, since Trump first appeared in the celebrity rather than politician category). Examples in this category include Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and others.

Negative resolution occurs if the winner is has never been elected to such an office. Examples in this category include a Trump re-election, Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama, Mark Zuckerberg, Dwayne 'the Rock' Johnson and most other Americans.


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