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Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?
It is usual for incumbent first-term presidents to receive their party's nomination for a second term, with Jimmy Carter in 1980 the last sitting president to lose at least one primary contest. However, in many ways, Donald Trump is an unusual president.
This question therefore asks whether Donald Trump will face a serious challenge for the Republican Party's nomination in 2020.
The question will resolve positively if a candidate other than Trump wins a primary or caucus election in any state or territory that provides bound delegates at the Republican national convention. This also includes the case where Trump finishes his first term but does not run for a second term, or drops out during the race. For clarity, the last sitting president who would have resolved this question positively would have been Carter, and Ford's '76 campaign would have also resolved positively.
The question resolves negatively if Trump successfully wins all of the Republican primary elections, or if he is the only candidate running. The re-election campaigns of Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Reagan would all have resolved negatively.
Should Trump never make it to 2020 (eg. he resigns, is impeached or dies before first primary) the resolution is ambiguous.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.