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Will a MLB pitcher throw a perfect game in 2018?
In Major League Baseball history, there have been just 299 no hitters ever thrown. That averages to approximately 2 a season. The last one was pitched by Sean Manaea of the Oakland A's on April 21, 2018.
Statistically speaking, we should expect another no hitter by the end of the 2018 season.
But perfect games are a whole different animal. To qualify for this honor, a team must put away every single batter through nine innings. No walks, men on base due to errors or hit batsmen allowed.
There have been just 23 such outings among the hundreds of thousands of big league games played since Rutherford B. Hayes was in the White House.
That said, there have been 6 perfect games since 2009, with 3 of them coming in 2012 alone!
Furthermore, a 538 analysis suggests that baseball's becoming a more pitcher-friendly game. The fans might not love a slower pace, but this trend should increase our chances of seeing a perfect game soon. 538 explains:
The average delay between pitches has jumped a full second. It’s all part of a decadelong trend toward more sluggish play, and there’s an alarming reason baseball’s pace problem is likely to get even worse going forward: Slowing down helps pitchers throw faster.
Question resolves positive if a MLB pitcher throws a perfect game in 2018 (either in the regular season or in the post season). Question closes retroactively at 1 hour before the start of a game in which this occurs, if it does.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.