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Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018?

This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.

The disease must have been contracted in the country of interest for this question to resolve as "yes." Imported cases (e.g., where the patient traveled to an endemic country, contracted the disease, and brought it home) do not meet the resolution criteria, though a locally-transmitted case which originates from an imported case does. If there is no indication of whether a case was locally-transmitted, this question will resolve as “no.”

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.