Question

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction

76.3

(28.7 - 211)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	28.73	76.35	210.5
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	28.73	—
median	76.35	—
upper 75%	210.5	—

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Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Jan 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2039

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2022

Zermelo–Fraenkel set theory

Turing machine

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?

59.8

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Dec 2035

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Dec 2032

Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Jan 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2039

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2022

Zermelo–Fraenkel set theory

Turing machine

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?

59.8

When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?

Dec 2035

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Dec 2032