39 comments
121 forecasters
[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?
58%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 58% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 14, 2022
Closes:Jan 20, 2022
Resolved:Jan 21, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2022
When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?
2085
(Apr 2039 - >2100)
2085
(Apr 2039 - >2100)
81 forecasters
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters
Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?
1.4% chance
52