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BAS Doomsday Clock Closer to Midnight in 2022


Related Question on Metaculus:

The Doomsday Clock is a regular publication by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists which represents the threat of a manmade global catastrophe. It was first published in 1947, saying "it is 7 minutes to midnight". The clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict, but has since included threats such as climate change and "disruptive technologies" such as biological weapons and cyber attacks.

In January 23, 2020, the BAS moved the clock to 100 seconds to midnight, its closest setting ever, and in January 27, 2021 they re-affirmed that setting. The clock has moved 24 times until now, backwards 8 times and forwards 16 times.

[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?

This question will resolve positively if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock to any setting less than 100 seconds to midnight, following the next official update. If the clock is set higher, or the clock remains at 100 seconds to midnight, this question will resolve negatively. An announcement by BAS is expected on January 20, 2022, if the BAS has no official announcement or update on the Doomsday Clock by January 1, 2023, this question will resolve negatively.

This question will close retroactively 1 hour before the BAS begins their formal announcement.

In the case the clock is set to some non-real number such as a complex or uncomputable number, this question will resolve ambiguously.

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