3 comments
25 forecasters
Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?
31%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 31% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 16, 2022
Closes:Jan 30, 2022
Resolved:Mar 9, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 18, 2022
Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?
1% chance
218
Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?
1% chance
32
Will "Krantz data" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?
0.2% chance
21