Question
How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on binary questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction1.04 (1.02 - 1.07)
Make a Prediction
CDF
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.95 | 1.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 1.024 | — |
| median | 1.043 | — |
| upper 75% | 1.066 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1.15 | 0.8% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 17, 2022
Closed:Jan 1, 2024
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 17, 2022
Closed:Jan 1, 2024
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
