Question
When will Magnus Carlsen no longer be the top FIDE-ranked chess player?
Total Forecasters28
Community Prediction
05 Nov 2026
(13 Aug 2025 - 18 Oct 2028)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 13 Aug 2025 | — |
| median | 05 Nov 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 18 Oct 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2035 | 3.7% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 20, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 22, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jan 20, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 22, 2022