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China first 10 to embryo select for IQ


Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of several previous Metaculus questions and a notebook. A previous Metaculus question asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.

Some commentators have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing biotechnology industry, will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The Beijing Genomic Institute had a cognitive genomics project, though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government jailed him for three years. Nevertheless, China has embraced embryo selection for diseases through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is restricted, a 2020 Pew poll found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly Han, have a relatively high level of support for "changing a baby's characteristics" to improve intelligence.

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

This question resolves positively if China is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.

Moreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence.

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