Question

What will the largest Common Crawl be, in TiB, by 2032?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction

1088 TiB

(599 TiB - 1884 TiB)

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CDF

	<320 TiB	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>8000 TiB
community	6.4%	599.3 TiB	1088 TiB	1884 TiB	2.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<320 TiB	6.4%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	599.3 TiB	—
median	1088 TiB	—
upper 75%	1884 TiB	—
Upper bound
>8000 TiB	2.2%	—

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Jan 26, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2032

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 28, 2022

AI Progress Essay Contest

Computing and Math

Technology

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.44M

Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

59%

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

5.9×10²⁶

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Jan 26, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2032

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 28, 2022

AI Progress Essay Contest

Computing and Math

Technology

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.44M

Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

59%

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

5.9×10²⁶