2 comments
15 forecasters
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Current estimate
Sep 2045
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2102
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2022
Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?
27% chance
28
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
8% chance
161