Question
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Total Forecasters14
Community Prediction
Sep 2045
(Dec 2031 - Apr 2067)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Dec 2031 | — |
| median | Sep 2045 | — |
| upper 75% | Apr 2067 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 13.7% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2102
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2102
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2022
