Question
When will China first successfully land people on Mars?
Total Forecasters32
Community Prediction
Jul 2047
(Jul 2041 - Jun 2056)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Jul 2041 | — |
| median | Jul 2047 | — |
| upper 75% | Jun 2056 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2070 | 6.9% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 18, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2070
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2070
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Feb 18, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2070
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2070
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2022