Related Question on Metaculus:
On February 3, 2022, the Military Times reported that Russia had more than than 136,000 troops massed on the borders of Ukraine.
Thomas Harding of the National News suggested that February is a window of opportunity for Russia to invade:
One of more intriguing aspects of the near-constant talks concerning Moscow is that military commanders — from Russia and Ukraine — will know that by early March the so-called “Rasputitsa” thaw will arrive.
When the winter snow melts the ground will be churned into a quagmire, making passage difficult, even for armoured vehicles. If the Russian tanks are restricted to roads then they will be more vulnerable to Ukraine's US-made Javelin missiles.
Speed will be everything if Moscow is to avoid becoming bogged down both physically and politically.
In 2014 Russia invaded and annexed the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement.
If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?
This question will resolve on the earliest date in 2022 that either the Russian Federation or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of January 1, 2022, will not trigger resolution.
If no such announcement is made by the Russian Federation or members of the UN Security council in 2022, this question will resolve ambiguously. Note that this question resolves for the date of announcements, not on the date of any invasion or military actions; In the case that some invasion occurs in 2022, which is acknowledged publicly in 2023 or later, this question will resolve ambiguously.