387 forecasters

Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

99%chance

99%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Feb 10, 2022

Closes:

Mar 17, 2022

Resolved:

Apr 8, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 11, 2022

2022 Leaderboard

Zelensky Shares Tragic Update After 'Savage' Russian Strike

Newsweek•Sep 9, 2025

Watch: Russia Launches Enormous Air Attack on Ukraine

Red State•Sep 8, 2025

Russia amasses 100K troops in key Ukrainian region Donetsk — sparking fears of large-scale assault

New York Post•Sep 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?