Question

Will BB(5) be known by 2040?

Resolved:Yes

12 comments12

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

1.2

Community Baseline Score

7.9

Authors:

evanbd

Opened:

Feb 9, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Resolved:

Jul 3, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 11, 2022

Computing and Math

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?

75.7

In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?

81.8

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

929k