12 comments
31 forecasters
Will BB(5) be known by 2040?
99%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 9, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2034
Resolved:Jul 3, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 11, 2022
In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?
70.5
(25.6 - 198)
70.5
(25.6 - 198)
12 forecasters
In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?
78.8
(34.8 - 193)
78.8
(34.8 - 193)
13 forecasters
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
929k B
(180k - 8.03M)
929k B
(180k - 8.03M)
51 forecasters