Question
Will BB(5) be known by 2040?
Resolved:YesTotal Forecasters31
Community Prediction
99%
(99% - 99.9%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?Yes
Community Peer Score
1.2
Authors:
Opened:Feb 9, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2034
Resolves:Dec 31, 2034
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 11, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?
76.3
In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?
59.8
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.04M
Authors:
Opened:Feb 9, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2034
Resolves:Dec 31, 2034
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 11, 2022
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in Peano arithmetic?
76.3
In 2040, what will be the smallest value of the busy beaver function known to be undecidable in ZFC set theory?
59.8
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.04M